Thoughts on Racing, Life, and More (Home)

I might take a break from Gulfstream tomorrow. Here is Santa Anita.

Race 1

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=1&date=2013-03-02

On paper, Storm Fighter looks much the best. Beware though, there is no guarantee this horse will stretch out and run the same and the outside post position means he loses ground on the first turn.

Ethnic Dance is a half to Twirling Candy.

Take a Risk ran wide in the Omega Star race on Dec. 31 and faded. Improvement should come here.

I’d also give Native Plan a look at long odds. His dirt races are not terrible.

———

Selection: #8 Storm Fighter (8/5)

Also Consider: #2 Ethnic Dance (5/2)

Longshot: #5 Native Plan (12/1), #3 Take a Risk (20/1)


Race 2

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=2&date=2013-03-02

Wednesday ran a game race while showing speed on the Hollywood Park turf course last time and note the winner came back to win again next time out. The stretchout to nine furlongs should not be a problem.

As for some value picks, Kyriaki’s sire is Scat Daddy and I am always a fan of Scat Daddy progeny on turf or synthetic. Kyriaki’s debut was on dirt, which I don’t care much about since this is a turf race. Bejarano thinks she is worth his time.

Another value pick is Majestic Minister. Ignore those two dirt races. Three starts back she finished second next to stakes horse Scarlet Strike.

Foxy Boss, the outside filly that finished second to Magnificent Shirl last time, also has a chance, but note her trainer James Cassidy is winning at a 0% clip out of 29 starts for the meet.

———

Selection: #6 Wednesday (7/2)

Value: #5 Kyriaki (6/1), #8 Majestic Minister (6/1)

Use Underneath: #9 Foxy Boss (5/2)


Race 3

Based on class and overall speed, Visigodo looks best. Ignore the flop in the Sept. 30 dirt sprint. This gelding likes route races on the dirt and he does get Gomez to hop on board. Expect a short price.

Prized by Buck deserves a look while being switched to the Peter Miller barn. Also expect a short price.

I may not like Derekson’s outside post position in this one mile race, but on paper he sure possesses a lot of early speed. On BRIS pace figures, he set a pace in his last race that was 18 points faster than par. Maybe he can surprise them.

———

Selection: #4 Visigodo (3/1)

Also Consider: #2 Prized by Buck (5/2), #10 Derekson (8/1)

Race 4

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=4&date=2013-03-02

There are no real standouts in this race. It is probably a good idea to spread in horizontals here. I will put Tizmetizyou on top. She ran second to a nice filly (Branding) last time on dirt and will be tough to mow down here.

There is nothing exciting about J K’s Mischief or Mystery Me, but I suppose they both have an equal chance based on their solid efforts last time.

Considering this is a weak field, give the first time starters a look. Jetbird and Gimlet with a Twist both have sires whose progeny win at a high percentage in their first starts. Gimlet with a Twist might be a big price.

———

Selection: #2 Tizmetizyou (3/1)

Also Consider: #3 Jetbird (4/1), #8 J K’s Mischief (5/2), #9 Mystery Me (9/2)

Longshot: #7 Gimlet with a Twist (20/1)


Race 5

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=5&date=2013-03-02

The horse that normally wins these downhill turf sprints is the one with successful downhill turf experience. In this race, that is Procurement, a colt that is 1 for 1 on the downhill turf.

Caught Napping deserves a huge look based on his close third in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last September. Note that Dry Summer and Power Broker finished ahead of him.

Give Amarish a look too based on the fact his sire is Scat Daddy and this is a turf race.

———

Selection: #5 Procurement (4/1)

Also Consider: #9 Caught Napping (7/2), #3 Amarish (4/1)


Race 6

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=6&date=2013-03-02

Beholder obviously holds a huge chance, but you cannot make too much money off her can you? Besides, maybe she did not improve from age 2 to 3.

I am hoping for a pace meltdown. Renee’s Titan is the one that capitalized on the meltdown last time in the Santa Ynez. Maybe a different filly can this time? I am intrigued by Lady Asano, recent maiden special weight winner. The race she won was a route, but her sire is Teuflesberg and he is known for making serious sprint runners (Trinniberg). In a move that everyone will think is wrong, I will put her on top.

———

Selection: #3 Lady Asano (15/1)

Also Consider: #5 Beholder (6/5), #7 Renee’s Titan (6/1)


Race 7

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=7&date=2013-03-02

In an evenly matched field, sometimes it is best to go with the horse that has the most upside. That horse in this one mile turf race is Insideondoutside, with only four starts on his record. Three of them were turf races and he performed solidly in each of them.

I will not pretend I have a good opinion on which one will finish second. You Know I Know gets Gomez and that might be enough reason.
——-
Selection: #8 Insideondoutside (5/1)

Also Consider: #2 You Know I Know (5/1)


Race 8

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=8&date=2013-03-02

This might be another “crazy” pick that will not pan out. I am going with longshot Boompa as the most likely winner. Now hear me out! This horse is 1 for 1 on the Santa Anita dirt, and, 1 for 1 on dirt overall. I don’t care about those synthetic flops. I am not completely sure Boompa will win, but I expect a big effort and he will still be my top choice despite the long odds.

Guidopanzini owns the best BRIS speed figure for the Santa Anita dirt surface. That race was a route though. Still, he owns a 2-1-1-0 record on the Santa Anita main track overall. Gomez thinks he is worth his time. The early speed is an asset here.

Zackn’mat owns a lot of upside and it will not be a surprise if he mows them all down in the lane.

Sir Bond had every chance to get by the winner last time and could not. He is starting to become a huge money burner. He can win though.

Rousing Sermon is the ultimate money burner. He holds a small chance. It is better to use him underneath.

———

Selection: #2 Boompa (15/1)

Also Consider: #3 Guidopanzini (6/1), #8 Zackn’mat (6/1)

Use Underneath: #6 Sir Bond (9/2), #5 Rousing Sermon (7/2)


Race 9

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=9&date=2013-03-02

Fed Biz is starting to look like a need-the-lead type. It does not matter. I think he takes the lead here in the Kilroe Mile and wins a close one.

Wilkinson should not be ignored either. While most of the horses in this race benefited from a hot pace in the Arcadia, this one made an early move into the teeth of that hot pace and held on well for second.

Silentio deserves consideration for the same reason.

Suggestive Boy won the Arcadia and holds the class edge on turf.

——-

Selection: #2 Fed Biz (9/2)

Also Consider: #7 Wilkinson (9/2), #1 Silentio (9/2), #3 Suggestive Boy (5/2)


Race 10

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=10&date=2013-03-02

The SA Cap is going to be a tough race. I just do not see Game On Dude receiving that much pressure though. If he does and folds, the race becomes wide open.

Ron the Greek, Guilt Trip, and Called to Serve are second options and all three will come late.

Stephanoatsee has the right breeding for 10 furlongs.

This might sound a bit too crazy, but Deacon’ Speakin is not necessarily without a shot either, at least to hit the board, based on his dirt win at Prairie Meadows.

———

Selection: #9 Game on Dude (6/5)

Also Consider: #1 Ron the Greek (5/2), #4 Called to Serve (6/1), #8 Stephanoatsee (8/1), #10 Guilt Trip (6/1)

Longshot: Deacon’ Speakin (50/1)

It was probably caused by the Doug O’ Neil horse trying to engage in a suicidal duel with Game on Dude early on. The problem is, no horse was capable of closing otherwise Game on Dude would have been cooked.

Yes, Clubhouse Ride and Make Music for Me were in the race but neither are Grade 1 quality.

If Ron the Greek was in this race, Game on Dude might have been toast.

*bias alert - I am no fan of Game on Dude and think he gets away with a lot of easy wins in short fields against optional claiming horses.

1. Clubhouse Ride (KY), A T Gryder, 118, C A Lewis
2. Game On Dude (KY), M E Smith, 123, B Baffert
3. Make Music for Me (KY), M Garcia, 118, A Barba
4. Chosen Miracle (FL), J Talamo, 118, J Hollendorfer
5. Basmati (KY), M Gutierrez, 118, D F O’Neill

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/75973/dude-set-for-super-tuneup-in-san-antonio

Game On Dude will crush this field and I do not even like Game on Dude. I was never a fan and never will be.

WHAT AN AWESOME RACE BY NONIOS.

Unfortunately, he lost the duel and Game on Dude held on, after bumping Nonios out of the way on the first turn and setting the pace. 

Nonios had a second life coming for home and made one more run, but it did not work.

…Good effort from Nonios.

Booo Game on Dude.

I’ll give this a whirl.

Trifecta Wheel - Nonios over Game on Dude/Richards Kid over Game on Dude/Richard’s Kid.

Maybe small win bet on Nonios too.

These will not be big amounts, but because I’m bored and the odds are right, time to have some fun.

I will likely skip the Native Diver from a wagering standpoint (although I reserve the right to change my mind). But I will handicap it for everyone anyway.

———

1) Game on Dude - Yes, on his best day he can crush this field. But is he off form? He broke slowly in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and tried to rally from the outside against a speed bias. It is tough to swallow taking a 3/5 shot in a 5 horse field.

2) Richard’s Kid - My main problem with Richard’s Kid is that Game on Dude has defeated him on multiple occasions this year already. Why would that change here unless Game on Dude is off form? Even if Game on Dude is off form, I prefer to go with a younger horse…one with an unknown ceiling. We know Richard’s Kid’s ceiling by now.

3) Make Music for Me - For him to win would require a lifetime best effort. Pass.

4) Nonios - Game on Dude defeated this one at Santa Anita, but that was on dirt. Maybe the tides turn on synthetic. The potential ceiling is unknown for this 3 year old, which means although he needs to improve slightly to win, he certainly has every right to improve.

5) Kettle Corn - Although he won this race last year, a hard win over Tres Borrachos is a lot easier than winning against Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid, or Nonios. He can’t win this…

———

Selection: Nonios

*if Nonios wins, look for Blueskiesnrainbows to win the 8th race

Also Consider: Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid