Happy Memorial Day weekend everyone! I handicapped the Louisville Handicap (III) last year, and this year has a slightly better field so I figured why the heck not? Older horses going a distance on turf is a big deviation from the same old three-year-olds on dirt. I need a break!
Turf should…
Click above for our good friend Dawna’s analysis of the Louisville Handicap tomorrow.
This Derby Trail post might make me consider them again, although deep closers are honestly always overbet in the Belmont Stakes.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50832
Even with a fast pace though, the tactical speed horses still hold the advantage. Dunkirk set a pretty quick pace in 2009 and he did not fold too easily, even if Summer Bird grinded his way to victory.
The life of a pace handicapper, where first is bad and last is good, depending on the pace of course.
-That horse did not lose, the pace affected him!
-What, that horse faded from first to last by 20 lengths … that horse is gold next time!
-Horse likes to come from the clouds? He got a setup? Avoid! Avoid!
-Hmm … this horse can run a 90 pace figure in the early half of the race, and the other horses can only run an 80 or worse pace figure…LOOSE ON THE LEAD SCENARIO.
-There are five different horses that can run a 100 early pace figure? Now I need that closer from the clouds! I never doubted him! Don’t avoid!
-Rachel Alexandra is the greatest filly of recent years! (Most pace handicappers will favor her, because she did the dirty work in most races during her career.)
-What that horse is undefeated? But how will the pace affect him/her?
-What? Triple Crown winner? Breeders’ Cup Classic winner? Multiple horse of the year champion? That’s nice and all, but let’s see what the pace scenario is!!!
I cannot think of anything else at the moment.
These horses may hit the board, but it is best to avoid them to win.
Golden Soul
Revolutionary
Code West
Mylute
Fear the Kitten
Avoid Orb too on top for lack of value.
I come up with good ideas in terms of which horses can win.
I don’t know how to structure my thoughts into betting formats where I will not lose.
Besides my Orb / Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday trifecta, I backwheeled Orb in the second slot, so if it had been Oxbow / Orb, I would still have won something. In my head, there was no way he could finish worse than second.
In retrospect, Oxbow was the better value considering his abilities are top-class as well. If you could bet a Grade 1 type horse on top at 15/1, or a Grade 1 type horse at even money, which would you choose?
In fact, if you pay close attention to this blog, my first thoughts after the Derby indicated I was going to back Oxbow heavily.
Even the Zenyatta-hater himself gets caught into the hype. I needed the money too.
No, I’m not quitting yet though.
Oxbow: A
He ran a great race, with some help from veteran jockey Gary Stevens. Stevens took the other jockeys, all of whom suddenly became too chicken to contest the pace, to school.
______
Itsmyluckyday: A
The real version showed up. He gets an A for facing a wide trip too.
______
Mylute: B
His hanging move fools a lot of people into thinking he will win. Rest assured if they try the Belmont, he will not win.
______
Orb: B-
Mylute closed from farther back, so my assessment here is a bit harsh. Orb outkicked Mylute in the Derby, and suddenly had no answer in this race.
______
Goldencents: D
I am finally convinced this colt does not want longer distances.
______
Departing: C
Realistically, finishing sixth was okay for him against these horses. He became a little overhyped heading into the race because he grew up with Orb in a paddock.
______
Will Take Charge: C-
Mylute started farther back and outkicked this one. Embarrassing.
_____
Govenor Charlie: F
With his speed, he should have been up there with Oxbow.
______
Titletown Five: F
With his breeding, he should improve at longer distances. The speed was softer here and he still folded.
Hello friends.
Here are my selections for Churchill tomorrow.
______Race 7
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=7&date=2013-05-19
In Kelly’s Defense looks ultra-tough, but not invincible. Avoid Birdstone progeny in short races. Also, note first time lasix for the rail filly Mahna.
Selections: #1 Mahna, #4 Comfort and Joy, #5 Finesse, #7 In Kelly’s Defense
Race 8http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=8&date=2013-05-19
The class-dropper on the rail looks dangerous. Out of the first time starters, Anusara and Cookie have decent connections. Finally, Pistorela owns positional speed.
Selections: #1 Delilahjane, #5 Anusara, #7 Pistorela, #8 Cookie
Race 9http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=9&date=2013-05-19
Side with Calvin Borel and hope for the best? The race sets up for Cold Facts.
No Distinction owns the high BRIS figure.
Selections: #1 Cold Facts, #6 No Distinction
Race 10http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=10&date=2013-05-19
Renards Lapin ran the best race last time from a pace handicapper’s standpoint.
If there is money to include Stylish d’Oro and Flak, they ran well in their last turf starts too from a pace standpoint, but I can’t pick all of them.
Selection: #10 Renards Lapin
“Maybe”…: #7 Stylish d’Oro, #11 Flak
No one avoids their own writing style. Professors know when someone else writes your paper.
People know these are my Churchill picks for today.
Fiftyshadesofhay
From looking at the expected double payoffs for Pimlico Special / Preakness double, Titletown Five and Oxbow are the two colts being ignored.
Maybe one of them can sneak into exotics and make this Orb lock somewhat profitable.
Exacta wheel:
Orb / Titletown Five, Oxbow
Trifecta wheel:
Orb / Goldencents, Departing, Mylute, Will Take Charge, Itsmyluckyday / Titletown Five, Oxbow
Those are my ideas anyway. I could change my mind.
rememberruffian replied to your post: Preakness Stakes Overview
I cant put my finger on it at all, but I have a feeling something bass going to happen tomorrow. Im so nervous and making myself sick worrying about the races tomorrow. Ugh. The life of a biased fangirl.
Don’t worry!
I thought about making a chicken joke here. I changed my mind.
Orb will do great!
